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Daily report of nonferrous metal industry in 2016: encouraged by "zinc"

Published:2022-06-16　　

Industry strategy: the supply contraction led by mine production reduction is fermenting, and the shortage of zinc concentrate is expected to further intensify in the year. In 2016, LME zinc price rebounded or hit US $2400 / ton.

Recommended combination: in the first stage, pure mines without smelting targets are recommended: Shengda mining, tibet everest and Yintai resources; In the second stage, targets with high output / market value and inventory / market value are recommended: Zhongjin Lingnan, Chihong Zinc Germanium and China national color Corporation.

Industry perspective.

The cost forced Glencore to lead overseas mines to actively reduce production: in 2015, zinc prices fell sharply, and global mines suffered large losses. Glencore announced to actively reduce the production of 500000 tons of zinc. Subsequently, Minmetals resources, zgh and other mining enterprises successively proposed to reduce production. It is estimated that the total production reduction in 2016 will reach 820000 tons, accounting for 6% of the total production in 2015.

Resources were exhausted, and a number of high-quality mines were closed in succession: the shut-down capacity totaled 773000 tons, including 393000 tons of zinc concentrate from century mine and 118000 tons of zinc concentrate from lisheen mine in 2015, a total reduction of 511000 tons, accounting for 3.8% of the total output in 2015.

Limited global new production capacity: the global large mining enterprises are cautious in their investment in new mines. In 2016, the overseas new production capacity was only 154000 tons, and China's new production capacity was 384000 tons, a total of 538000 tons.

Infrastructure development and downstream demand recovery: at the beginning of 2016, China's monetary policy was loose and infrastructure development was strong, and the new construction area of real estate rebounded significantly under the stimulation of a series of policies such as "de Stocking", automobile sales increased steadily, and China's refined zinc consumption showed signs of recovery. We expect the global zinc demand to grow by 1.4% year-on-year in 2016.

In 2016, the supply of zinc is facing a major shortage: we predict that in 2016, the output of concentrate will decrease by 6.9%, the output of refined zinc will decrease by 4.7%, the global demand will increase slightly by 1.4%, and the gap between supply and demand will reach 750000 tons.

The rise of zinc price is expected to accelerate in the short term, rebounding or reaching US $2400 / ton: at present, the shortage of zinc concentrate has developed to the stage of "shortage aggravation", and the smelters under centralized maintenance in the early stage have resumed work one after another, resulting in a larger concentrate gap; In the fourth quarter, the smelter prepared goods, the concentrate was in seasonal shortage or reached the extreme, and the zinc price rebounded to the target of $2400 / ton.